YT realised I miscalculated on SOP price. I said $750 - $800. Sorry to all readers of this thread. Should've been $600 - $650. Why would you use the low side of the price figure? Thats for MOP which is not what they'll produce. They'll produce SOP which commands a 20 -30% premium. Perhaps you've used $500 as a safegaurd against future prices being lower. There is probably just as much risk they'll be higher. So for every $1 the potash price goes up will mean $1.20 - $1.30 to AIV. Quite critical. The key to this thing going ahead will obviously be the potash price and the current scoping study and if they can deliver a lower cost alternative processing route. But if you were to use a mid figure price for their product of say $560 a tonne against the rest of your figures it would result in a NPV of $45 million. If you were to use the usual premium figure(according to them) of $625 a tonne the NPV would increase to $66 million. If they manage to bring opex and capex down it'll get even healthier. The whole thing is an interesting situation. Might ring them Monday and see how their scoping study is going.
AIV Price at posting:
6.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
