Any knowledge out there on how the floods will effect Easternwell. No longer just normal floods. The March floods held off a lot of drilling for 3 to 6 months or so. Currently Emerald area, Bowen basin, Surat basin is flooded, and water will move through darling downs to inundate the Cooper basin again in 3 months or so.
Would be good (reasonable) to get an idea from TSE, before the paperwork is submitted for entitlements. AJ Lucas's drilling EBITDA was cut by about one third in the Jan-June half due to the comparatively minor floods. Santos had 2 MMBOE of production deferred in the Cooper basin - 10% of their total international production of gas for the half.
It looked like TSE was buying a bargain (and in a hot sector too), but have they presented figures for Easternwell only for good weather years to make it look good? A bit of averaging with floods every now and then would possibly make the acquisition look more in line with expected returns. (No quibble that it is a good sector to get into).
So I am expecting that there will be a significant effect on Easternwells immediate contribution to earnings for TSE.
Anybody out there more knowledgeable than me on this topic of flooding's effects? Please give some input.
MB
TSE Price at posting:
$3.34 Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Held
