Ann: New Seaclem 1 - Spud - Progress Report , page-105

re: Ann: BUY: New Seaclem 1 - Spud - Progress... Thanks for saving me the time to look up the ASX trading hours over Xmas/New Year, Lest.

Too many last minute Xmas functions to check it out.

I would expect an announcement tomorrow regarding the BOP being set/rested and drilling set to commence to reach the first and second primary targets over the weekend.

This is a very shallow drill and you would expect that the great white and the marlin formations to be intercepted over the long weekend...not before.

If they hit gas at the first formation they may run logs and this will slow it down a bit to the next formation.

I cannot seem to find a drill depth/timeline chart anywhere..I have not had much time to check it out thoroughly...this is normally organised prior to drilling and usually posted on the website for shareholders to view progress...maybe this will happen tomorrow.

In any case tomorrow is crunch time for traders....buy/ sell or hold.

The next trading opportunity is on Wednesday and any hydrocarbon find ,or not, by that stage would have to be reported to the ASX as an announcement.

Assume significant HC's (Hydrocarbons not Hotcopperites)are discovered over the weekend,then MMR would have to report before opening bell on Wednesday.

You would need to check pre open jostling on the buy or sell side from about 8.30 am to see whether the was going to bolt on open or fall like a lead balloon (if no HC's are encountered in both targets)...the match price will tell the tale. Ships do leak sometime! (LOL)

Whatever the case your finger may need to be very alert to press the buy or sell button depending on your circumstances...buy some fire proof undies or a cheap extinguisher during the Xmas sales just in case... :0)

Never forget that this is an appraisal well not the one and only shot to glory.Other targets in PEP11 will be drilled whether the first well is a success or not...so it not a one drill wonder.

If HC's are encountered then it will take a few weeks to analyse the results for Hydrocarbon composition/Well head pressure/flow rates/contaminants in the Gas/Longer chain hydrocarbon presence including/condensates/porosity/permeability and reservoir estimate with trap interpretation...final results can take up to 3 months...not long in the scheme of things if viable HC flow rates are encountered.

For most punters out there it's a question of what price will the SP go to if Gas (a whiff or more)is found over the weekend.

My view is that the SP will be well above the previous peak (maybe $1.5+) could spike even higher on the pent up hype and interest...anything is possible..Xmas Euphoria!

But no doubt whatever the peak is upon success it will retrace until the final results are in.If these prove up a resource of 1-2Tcf range then it should be well above 2 and the next drill targets will be pushed forward to capitalise on the find and bolster the SP even further.

So far all of the above is hypothetical.

So the next part of the Hypothetical is a "duster" ..no gas or HC's encountered scenario.

Come Wednesday morning open there will be a rush for the exits and your stop losses will not work at opening match price...I have seen it a few times and lived through it.

You financial circumstances should guide your position on the day.

If it is a duster with more holes to be drilled during 2011 then it should not plummet to badly..it will then revert to a good trading stock until the next drill..you could make up any losses by trading carefully if you need to....Look at MEO at the moment for guidance.

MEC resources and Advent certainly have the right staff and management to pull this off during 2011...they are experienced operators with the likes of the Talbot group behing them. Ken Talbot was a very,very savvy operator,sadly he is no longer with us after the Air crash disaster that wiped out most of the Sundance resources management in Africa recently.

Given the fact that you cannot claim tax losses in MMR, then you really need to think about how you would react to an initial "Duster" scenario.

Now thinking positively prior to Xmas ...just think about the Sydney Basin being a proven winner when it comes to Coal/Gas/Oil shows and it has been for many a decade..long before the WA and QLD resources boom...it has history and it is huge..both proven onshore and highly prospective Offshore.

I, for one ,cannot see that PEP 11 will not produce Gas. For all our sakes I hope that the first well will give us a FLAMING good XMAS and New Year...

Bruce, I hope your not a chain smoker and light one up near the rig when you see a large Orange coloured flare coming out the backside of the rig and you decide to go for a closer look...you could one of those things that go BOOM in the night!...you could always take a close up shot of your blackened face with the fag hanging out of your mouth and post it on HC.

I am not too far away from the action ..maybe we could send in the bucket boys and the St John Ambos with some anaesthetic , before we drink it, for the burns of course!
:0))

So bottom line boys and girls and others is that the next 5-6 days will see all of us having lot's of drinks on new years eve ...win or lose!..start training now I say.

Back to my plonk now..

Cheers HR

must remember to turn off the phones before trade starts tomorrow..I missed the start this morning!

Strictly my views expressed above ..no advice given or intended...it's your money boys and girls ..be careful..you are in danger of making good money or dropping a bundle or just breaking even. DYOR and have a few drinks over Xmas to ease the anxiety levels...recommended for anxious non drinkers as well!..Hic!

over and out.