re: Ann: EVG reports on its near term expecta...
mavs,
I would be a bit more forward looking. Some of the risks to us being a near term profitable gold producer, that I see are:
1. project construction delays (now out of hurricane season). the photos in the presentation made me sit up and pay attention. I am a lazy investor and didnt realise how far advanced they actually are. but of course, we dont care how many % they have completed, just how long and how much itwilltake to complete :)
2. errors in the expected opex. the two core sources I see here could be:
a. small scale extrapolations to the actual plant that cannot be realised. you might see the economics of a small scale trial plant make a number of assumptions on how it might perform. beforeany of the more experienced posters shoot me down on this :) I am only making these assertations from afar and would be interested in learning more about how robust these opex predictions are.
b. power costs. this was only just highlighted in the presentation yesterday. something which should not be ignored and I would like to better understand what kind of arrangements they have on the island to manage power. in some respects on a macro scale, the price of gold output is a hedge against this occurring because both energy and gold are considered values stores and the biggest risk to these in the forseeable future is not demand increase so much as inflationary effects.
So, with the current project assumptions and cautious approach to future earnings, it is hard not imagine that this company could not absorb some realisation of those risks, and still be substantially proftiable.
rarely do you see a project or stock hit its NPV until they are in production and all the risks have been removed or mitigated; but by that stage you will probably be focused on what is coming next.
This guy, BJ, whoever he is, seems to have constructed a ferrari in sheeps clothing :) plenty of things to consider on the next plate.
SF
EVG Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
