Was just refreshing myself of the numbers re the reserves. Its been quiet for so long I have forgotten the details.
In your assessment you are looking at 3p reserves for Snatcher and Growler. 7.3 mbo. Of that the Growler field I feel will come in close to the touted 5.8 mbo 2p based on the 3D. Snatcher is unknown yet as the field is open in all directions and needs to be tested. Confidence is high here as well.
In your assessment you have not looked at Reserves for Tigercat. Tigercat has 700k recoverable from 1 well. The field is to be further defined in the next program.
The Wirraway/Warhawk strucrue is what will make the company with up to 20 mbo recoverable.
Now at 4.5c the MC is 40 mill which values the oil at $25 per barrel which I agree is high end in the current market.
Cash on hand is 1 cps share. Using the cash brings the oil down to under $20 per barrel.
In that you have not priced the untested ground and with the 3d you would now be able to put a value on that 268 sqm. Tigercat is also not there.
There is no blue sky placed in the price, that is always difficult to price.
Obviously earnings are not priced in either ( I accept we are not producing at present)
I think the fact Vic Pet were happy to gain a 10% stake at 6c average also speaks highly of the land.
With all that in mind I think 8-9cps is very achievable once the program is underway and feel that despite the situation its value is around that 6-7 cps now but that won;t happen given the current scenario.
ITC Price at posting:
4.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held