asian morning arbitrage, page-5

On my watchlist I have just EU, GU, AU, the yen pairs, and the synthetics EA and GA.

Having trouble with screen shots, but...:

here is a recent grab of spreads and percentage change for the day (which I think ends either at 9 or 10am our time)

EUR/USD 1.2941 1.2945 0.41%
EUR/JPY 112.31 112.36 0.70%
EUR/AUD 1.4903 1.4915 0.13%

GBP/USD 1.5223 1.5228 -0.44%
GBP/JPY 132.06 132.19 -0.17%
GBP/AUD 1.7539 1.7552 -0.93%

USD/JPY 86.75 86.79 0.26%

AUD/USD 0.8674 0.8678 0.47%
AUD/JPY 75.22 75.32 0.73%


While the idea is a good one, I think that it is too hard to pick which way the synthetics will move. Even if you get the underlying movement right (eg, AUDUSD and EURUSD both up, say) then you still have to worry about the relative movement of each - ie, if the AUD moves up MORE then the cross will go down.

And there's the UJ to worry about. That will affect the yen pairs, which I think have the most impact on our morning market. Paulbooma might be the person to ask about their effect.

For those happy with their pick of trend direction, then the yen pair provides greater movement. Look at AU and AJ differences above. But again, that will depend on UJ primarily.
And yes, look at GU and GA - as long as you identify the primary movement in both, then the synthetic cross provides much more movement.

But yes, back to your first bit - I think that the EUR and GBP move less in our morning session!

:)
hope this helps in some weird way...!