afr article - 21 june, page-8

interesting to note the comment-any recapitalisation will require the consent of both the lenders and SHAREHOLDERS.
Sounds to me like i might have been right.A Swop of debt for equity.Around 10-15% of debt is my bet.That is $270 to $350 Million.
Imagine if they get those shares at 10c.Heaven help us.Then again BBP paid 18c and that deal improved BBP (Alinta) equity by $350M.
Just remember boys and girls if the shareholders say no,it won't happen.Having said that,it will have to be sweet enough to make me say yes.And that for me will equate to 40c value per share atleast.
As the valuer placed an origional value on the companies equity on break-up value around $200m with BBI debt of $44OM that sounds not too bad to me.
$200 + $350(nearly a buck a share) from BBI restructure less around $290M provisions(accounting writedown on values not a cash loss) still leaves shareholder raw equity(plant value only-not marketing,retail arms) of 30c plus per share.plus whatever debt has been paid down over the last 6mo.
Now if some of those offers are above book value,well that makes your equity even higher.No carbon tax dampner to kill values like their were when those valuations were done.Lets wait and see.
Even selling a coupla power stations at a profit could change the whole equation dramatically.
OOPS I FORGOT-If we made a cashfow positive reduction in debt from income in this last 6 mo.that helps too.the prior 6mo.THAT WAS $44m excluding redfern repayment that went towards a NEW TURBINE (total cost around $60M)to add to production instead of debt reduction.
Either way-if nothing happens we've still another 12mo. before we really need to restructure and our lenders are stuck with unrated loans which don't look good on their books til well beyond then.hence some discounting.
THEY NEED TO GET THESE LOANS RATEDin a company that's rateable(THESE LOANS AFFECT THE LENDERS ABILITY TO BORROW because THEY AFFECT THEIR RATING),if that involves a recapitalisation,then lets realise they gain greatly from a reclassification of these loans and we should ensure they pay a reasonable cost,NOT AT OUR EXPENSE,but theirs.
(GIVE ME A DISCOUNT BOYS)20% sounds good.

That would change the economics of the business considerably

As trump says if i owe the bank a million they own me,if i owe them a billion,i own them and they are much more ammenable.

I"M STOCKED UP FOR BEAR-if you are too we may either be smiling or crying together depending on what happens.

Plse don't follow me.Use your brains and follow your heart to wherever it takes you.Copycats are just sheep to the slaughter that don't know it yet.