b2 to ian _whitchurch, page-2

ian _whitchurch to b2
Sorry for not getting back to you on this sooner - I missed the message, and only just saw it reviewing the STU traffic.

Basically, Stuart got hit with a combination of Arwon missing and day trader madness on the downside.

Holding through drills is a personal things - if you sold out of Stuart before Worrior, you'd have cashed out at 48 cents, and if you sold out of Oilex before Rookwood you'd have 14 cents per share.

Personally, I think that there are enough people playing the 'sell before depth' game that they get into each others way when they try and sell.

It's notable that several of the recent runs (I'm thinking Nido and Lion here) havent been drill-related.

Stuart's fundamentals are still what they were - about 65m shares for a market cap of $50m, supported by 4 million barrels of reserves (3mmbo in Arwon, half an mmbo in Acracia, half an mmbo between Arwon, RSW, Harpoono, Derrilyn) and cash flow of about $30 000 a day. Value reserves at A$12 in the ground, and you get them as fair value.

If you regard oil in the ground as being worth more than this, then they are worth more.

They'll probably be quiet until the next news event - they'll be declaring another record profit next quarter, as Derrilyn and RSW kick in, and they'll be announcing a pipeline from Worrior sooner or later.

They have some high-probability gas targets in and around Doremius - basically, it's an extention of Pondrine/Packsaddle, and may end up being unitised as part of that field. Zulu block (the SW of 113) also has a number of small oil targets.

They've got production, reserves and good exploration country, and I 100% disagree with you about their management - they have never issued a dodgy release about a discovery, and the fact they were confident about Arwon and said so is backed up by the fact that they refused a 3:1 farmin deal on that prospect (I know, I was part of it).

It's also interesting that Stuart is still 10% above it's old 75 cent trading range, where it was stuck for so long.

The market has certainly over-reacted to Beeville and Jezebeel, as they only contributed to both at even money. By my numbers, they only spent about 4 weeks worth of net revenue on them.

Ian Whitchurch