I still need to go back and clean that post up as it is erroneous in its current form. Still lots of upside but beware if the downside risks materialise.
I do think that FIRB will have a small impact to SP. But lets face it, there is a lot of time until the drill.
A more likely catalyst for share price movement (other than the drill) would be MOG selling down its 5% of its 15% to derisk itself before the drill. For this condition I would expect similar proportional "price" for the 5% that Petrobras paid for MEOs 50%. maybe it could be worth more as it will give Petrobras 55% of the permit and operatorship after the drill.
Cheers,
SF
PS:thanks rotiesb for correcting the gross mistake
MOG Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held