Yes thanks for reminding me of the Mellesons thing favre..
Had completely forgotton about that.
the other angle here is that some company could have a crack at arrow purely to be a nuisance and make a hundred million or more out of Shell/ Petro.
the deal is just so cheap for Shell it is virtually a given they will go higher if required. Would serve them right infact for leaving the door this wide open.
Obviously the cadidate would want to be an energy major in case it backfires..BG could go for it quite easily I imagine as they offere 13.7 billion for ORG and only spent 6.7 billion so far.
The more shares they can buy from the weak hands now the better the sting on shell would work. If they started absorbing a while ago and have near on 5% now snd have a few stooges building stakes, they could get 15% and then offer $6.50 a share and put a fast deadline on it. They are effectively putting $4.7 billion on the table if Shell call their bluff, but we all know Shell have no choice but to respond. So Shell go to $7 on the existing terms.. game set match ...
Depending on how many shares the 2nd bidder has control over when they throw the offer forward, the gambit could net the second bidder about $200 million if they had 15%. Around 520 million invested for about a month for a 50% return...not bad in these difficult times.
I bet NHC would like this line of thinking..and we know the board at Arrow would change camps in the blink of an eye for fist full of dollars.
Aside from my personal interest, I want this to happen just to make Shell pay something closer to fair value for our energy assets. I cannot believe how many commentators are prepared to say well done Arrow !My backside..they capitulated big time imo and if this goes through as is shareholders have been shafted for the sake of avoiding the effort and short term risk developing FL. Weak performance if you ask me...and I don't hold the same regard for ND as I once did.
AOE Price at posting:
$4.99 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held