inside business, page-18

Gator,

Great point. There has always been an underlying risk in the CSG to LNG conversion process, and I think it has been reflected in some of the valutations of the CSG companies.

To play devils advocate for a moment, Deutsche among other analysts (in Oz, Canada and the U.K from what I can see) appear to be in consensus, that the offer is somewhere between 20-25% below par, given current valuation metrics which include potential oversupply and a potentially dwindling customer base. Let's assume, for argument sake, that we see a revised offer of 6.30 all in (the WHTM target offer), what then?

Some of us here suggest that they would be happy to vote against accepting such an offer, speccing that in later years they may see AOE with a SP of +$8, what happens in the interim? I'm not too sure I'd refuse a revised offer of $6.30. We all know AOE has significant CR issues if a revised offer were to be turned away. Coming up with the cash for the FL startup will be crippling if we were to see an issuance of further shares, even if an equity stake is also sold to a bigger player. Show me an annualized return in AOE between now and 2015 of +30% and I may reconsider what I have just said. Becuase 30% is what I could reasonably expect to get if invested semi-smartly elsewhere.

I'd say the analysts (some of whom may not have the profit agenda some allege) are probably on mark, in which case, let's talk turkey. What will you all do, assuming a revised offer in the range of $6.30 all in?

WU