What is our oil and gas field worth in recoverable resources? That's the question the market is trying to answer when it puts its price of 25 odd cents for each Adelphi share. The market thought Adelphi was worth a fair bit more between March 08 and Oct 08, what about Oct 06 to Oct 07? That was back when there was a fraction of the action that's now taking place, with no Hilcorp funding the ops, with plans to drill wells without any of the methods they now know how to use, but we're less than a third of the way to those prices!
The market is placing a value on this like it's still less than a 50-50 chance. Wait until the market sees the results of 4 or 5 wells! What would 20 odd wells bring in the next 24 months in revenue? Is this JVP a $2b operation? A $5b one? Will gas prices be back to records just in time for the spudding of the 20th well? :) :)
Many many months to go before the market gets a taste of whats to come IMO, but it's a hell of a lot more that 25c.
ADI Price at posting:
24.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held