the All Ords and XJO looks to me like a narrowing oscillation sideways pattern (pennant) beginning 22-07-2009, with a direction decision due within 14 days(AORD) and 21 days (XJO).
the Dow has hit substantial resistance and is at a long term declination point of agreement,(#1) for a few weeks now (since mid Nov) and channelling sideways. Actually just slightly over it as it usually a tad overly optimistic these days on stimulated numbers. It has had two half hearted and one readying attempt to break that resistance, which does not add up to three attempts yet. For some reasons tech analysts like the three attempt success or failure confirmations.
To me this spells that it is either overly optimistic right now and knows it, or it is almost out of puff this run and further revaluations which will put it sideways are required.
It also is at a point of decision but with no easily pointed time frame for that to occur.
(#1) significant chart line point dates to me are 11Oct07, 05Jun08, 11Nov09. This is a long term declination line that is approximately the same as Barnsty's and I have been plotting since the other lines in its family became apparent as a declining channel pattern from May07 to Oct08.
Dow Monthly resistance over a 30 year frame is 11810 realistically met within three years, at this time frame there is plenty of opportunity for it do some consolidation before moving up again. Support is 9400.
The major long term inclination line I use starts in 1982 and was touched again at the low of July 09. That is my benchmark line of reality.
I have other reference fanlines of inclination that start at Dec94 which is the toe of the post 87 crash real recovery.
The lower fanline touches the low of Feb 03 which is the toe of the post 00 crash real recovery. At present the Dow is just inside this expanding area.
The upper fanline touches the lows of Sept04 and July06 and establishes the period 94 to 06 as a growth inclination indicator while ignoring both the dotcom and the GFC bubbles and corrections. This 15 year rate of growth is possibly more relevant to present growth expectations than a 30 year rate, somewhere in between is entirely possible and likely in the short term given market nervousness of bubbles.
Personally I would not be surprised if we are in for two years of sideways movements around the levels we are at now before sufficient stabilisation of value provides the grounds for another significant up swing. Similar consolidation to the period 2004 and 2005 after the previous bubble burst, and similar to the post 1987 crash short term consolidation period.
ifandwhen
I would love to have posted charts of this, except photobucket is not cooperating with my pc today, so have to reword it all to give the chart points.
(20min delay)
