when the spp dust settles

When the SPP activity has run it's race what do you think the share price will be? More an arithmetical/theoretical price rather than a sentimental one is what I'm after.

The material from BDO Kendalls re the SPP gives a market price incl control premium of $0.87 for the Hanlong Mining investment. If the SPP is fully subscribed then another 20 million get added to the register. This 20 mil represents 4.57% of the new total so my figuring is that the new (theoretical) post SPP price will be about $0.82. If that is so the SPP doesn't seem like a good punt on an outlay of $0.80. On a gut-feel basis the downside looks more likely than the upside.

So is my logic and arithmetic all to pot?

By the way I sold out my entire MOL holding post record date so still have the SPP entitlement. Thinking of letting it lapse unless a really persuasive poster can change my view.