big trade, page-4

trippa99

I have not seen you post for quite sometime.............if ever.
Anyway welcome

This has been a disaster for me too


I am still hoping.








Thanks for your question. I know I am not the best person to answer this question.


Some initial considerations:
1. Strong population growth forecast – at least an additional 1 million residents by 2026 (25% growth)

High reliance on motor vehicle (78%......1.7 cars per household)
2. use cars to get to work)…………….no railways planned.
3. Concession to 2043
4. CP2 has studied Toll Roads and particularly loves CEU Has fully taken up its rights


At the end of the day any investment is about REVENUE and EXPENSES and their reliability and predictability.
As I understand it the following is CEU’s current debt and post refinancing in 2010 and the interest charged (8% I have assumed.



Debt (now) $1269M…………..int rate 7.37% interest bill $93M
post 2010 $1214M
Interest $161,920,000
post 2010 $110,960,000




Sept traffic 163345 ADT= Revenue $195,556,634.00……………annual revenue with 0% increase in traffic









1. Overrall this not a pretty picture.
2. At the moment CEU is sailing close to the wind
3. We are witnessing a complete reappraisal of the investment fundamentals of CEU
4. It is NOT the income generating vehicle its creators called in the BEGINNING.
5. After about 5 Years CEU will be a veritable CASH COW with its LOWER DEBT , increased car patronage , and CPI linked toll increases
6. And this goes on until 2043