apd says 920m in assets for aez

in todays financials APD says the FUM they manage for AEZ is $920m as at 30 June 2009.

Looking at the old figures for 31 March 2009 assets were $1.2b. That suggests assets have fallen around 28% since march.

that means NTA will be around $0.40 and equity will be $220m. this suggest multiple LVR breaches and therefore a cap raising.

it was also interesting to note that APD was mentioning M&A, i guess they are softening us up for a big equity raising to reduce gearing. or maybe the reason the price has been increasing as well as vol is that there is a low ball bid out there. going on past bids in the space then 60% of NTA would be about right, or around $0.25.

if assets are $220m and $700m debt and they need a 50% LVR then they will need around $450m.

if APD was smart, they would go to AMP and tell them to buy out APD for $40m and get the management rights to AEZ. then AMP could delist AEZ and recapitalise it and we would have a strong balance sheet behind it. the way it is APN is way way out of its league managing AEZ.

there is value in AEZ but it needs to be recapitaised.