takevoer news pending?, page-7

Takeover in the wind. Nope.

Brindle/Leigh came as a package and Trinity trumpeted them as the very best. Trinity paid $7m in cash plus generous long-dated options - just for their sign-on fee (over and above salaries and performance options).

To have them walk after 6 months is a PR disaster. The market’s been pondering why. Brindle/Leigh have reputations to uphold and that’s probably their no. 1 driving force.

One possibility is they'd would walk if Trinity were in worse shape than they were initially led to believe, and has so far been disclosed. The lack of reassuring info in the announcement makes me suspicious.

The long term property ownership and funds management look ok. Any problems lie in the property development dealings.

Over and above development losses and write-downs, a liabilities tail might be forming on development and funding contracts written in the better times, specifically:

- performance guarantees to co-investors, now being called by those investors

- resistance by co-investors to fund realised development losses. The funding of those losses can fall back to Trinity via funding guarantees given to the project and/or to Trinity as the funder of last resort.

My guess is that the balance sheet hasn't stabilised. The purchase of 50% of Cumberland Lorne Resort might be to mitigate some of the above, rather than it’s value as an investment. Hard to say.

Without insider information it’s impossible to know. It's certain NTA will drop. Have risked a smallish amount just to be in the game.