my predicksions, page-11

That's a toughy, and I can't give an extremely informed opinion because I haven't really followed it closely since their reincarnation. I will say that the story sounds brilliant - NPAT projections and contracts signed and in the pipeline should see the SP increase significantly in the next year.

But... I hate to sound cliche, but the "too good to be true" scenario is the main negative. The speed with which they've apparently turned the Nexbis company into such a money spinner, and on such a scale, seems phenomenal. And although I don't completely agree with the efficient market hypothesis theory, I do believe that the SP would noremally more accurately reflect their prospects if the projections were really set in stone. The ones that can really influence the stockmarket in any but the most illiquid company are instos and socalled sophisticated investors. The simple fact that the SP isn't flying indicates they're not convinced yet.

The 10 million in the bank was a good sign (although I found their need to announce it as a bit unusual) but for a company with a market cap of 160m , it's not exactly a safety margin. Contracts can get cancelled (we don't know the specific clauses) and ETC's profit margins seems huge so they could get undercut. I think a meaningful cashflow (rather than NPAT) at the year end would re-rate the SP, but I think I can't be the only one just now who's skeptical enough to sit out. I really am interested to see the FY report now though...