something to watch, page-20

...gut feeling appears to be correct:

(1) Higher cost of Cat-cover (note the %utilisation of cat-cover in Q1/09)

(2) Lower investment returns - Nick, it is fine to be "conservative" but at some point you need to "work your investments" else you run the risk of going backwards. Would recommend (a) lengthening SHF duration to around 2.5 years, (b) increasing VaR slightly, and (c) increasing credit slightly. This should increase your returns by around 1% (*based on current estimated portfolio structure).

(3) Board in "limbo" regarding capital utilisation and protection. Board is "loaded" with insurers - time to listen to Mr Lowenstein guys.

(4) COR still >101, and will remain >100 unless their are true (internal) efficiency gains. CIX should not rely on claims ratios to improve the COR.

(5) Whilst they have "bigged-up" their conversion to Sirius, it appears slow, drawn-out, and probably over budget. Guys - bight the bullet and complete this - I am sure it is draining on the bottom line and investors are getting a bit sick and tired of hearing about it.

Kirk needs to lift the targets a notch or two. Simply relying on claims ratios (which cannot be sustained in the current market; particularly in this point in the economic cycle) is not enough: you need to work your investments and spare capital harder. "2.4 times required capital" reads to me as "1.4 times lazy capital" - time to do something about it: if you can't acquire then you should take advantage of some of the peer offerings of subordinated debt etc.

Just tips, that's all...

Will reenter CIX when they get their act together - too "passive" (management-wise) at the moment for my liking...

Best regards
Kit