last chance to get out..., page-14

asteroider ~ did you get your decade idea from "Sternlicht Sees Bottom Forming in Residential Market" i just heard the radio and sounds like some one believe the same.i would recommend people listen to the radio,its good stuff

point taken from the radio is every time when CDO mature in the next few years will have effect on setting the new price by market system. and hence right now the best is to buy debt/note or bond so you either get pay or you own the property. in the downward market this price setting will impact the recovery every time it sets the new market price(low) therefore slow down the recovery but i actually think it can work both ways~ if we manage to come out of this recession sooner than later then it can also push the price higher every time it sets the new price... but that just being optimistic :p

i was thinking just now and to be honest the inflation story actually ring alarm bell to me. i didnt have the chance to experience the 14%+ interest rate era in Australia back then so i dont know what economic and property price actually doing during that period.. but if you think again, if the interest rate is shooting to the sky then how can any business survive, not just on the interest repayment part, lets say today u r super fund manager , to beat the risk free return(interest rate return) is going to be really hard as if the interest rate is higher than 6%+ and any small to medium business might have 15% profit margin before tax..... you r going to have negative return compare to the risk free return..... to me this sounds like really doom and gloom ! until we have cheap credit back again, it will be really hard for small to medium business to have return that beats the risk free rate, unless the inflation just explore and one chance another to push all price higher and higher.. i would think the economic would be in grid lock as it will take really long time to recover

it's inevitable that the interest will shoot up as most available fund has already been suck up by newly issue government and private bonds therefore unless investor has been reward much higher return, they wont be lending their money to company/government.so all tangible hard asset will appreciate while the negative return for small to medium company force recovery slow... i wonder what really happen few decades ago when our interest rate was shooting to the sky, i mean what happen to general economic?