I make it 33% annualised including an estimated $6 of divi's between now and June 2010 (including June 2010 payment). A gross return of 41% for a 15 month wait with little downside I can think of.
If an asset sale cannot be made in time to redeem TAPS for cash then HDF likely to renegotiate TAPS for a 1 year roll-over while a sale is concluded. New terms likely circa 10-15% plus BBSW as a incentive for major TAPS holders to roll-over and not dilute HDF in a messy script payout. The major holders will hold on for another year or so at right price and some new money will come in on re-marketing for those who just want their cash back regardless. There is virtually NO chance HDF will issue script to TAPS holders and blow-up the registry.
mmmm.... how shall I spend my 40%?
goodluck
HDF Price at posting:
49.3¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held