revenues going up 2009 and 2010

This one has slipped under the radar of HC imho. Is that because the stock is lightly traded? probably but here is something to consider........

AUB has equity in commercial insurance brokerages, usually around 50% but they let local owners/principals run the show.

Insurance brokers control 95% of the commercial insurance market.

Insurance brokers, under the AUB model, earn most of their income from commission

Premiums are set to increase in light of a difficult environment for insurers. I refer to higher freqency of catastrophic events, low interest rates, difficult economy. Add to this the fact that insuers have been releasing reserves to bolster ROE's in recent years (so they have less to realease now).

this all points to:-
Higher premiums = higher commissions = higher revenue for AUB, throw in a few acquisitions over the next 12 months and you have an excellent defensive stock for medium to long term. All buisnesses need insurance and reveunes are set to rise.

In a hardening insurance cycle i would expect this to go up over the 4.50 mark in 6-18 months. no techincals just gut feel

one for the smsf i think

tbedon
DYOR