the late fall, page-3

Good, but even good is bad when the D word is mentioned.

It goes like this; ING's capitalisation rate falls below AAA according to Basel IV (8%). They have no worries - strong balance sheet, low CDO hangovwers, etc, but they want their AAA+ credit rating, so pending a cap raising (one assumes) they tap a temporary line of credit from the EU. This is good.

However, by the simple fact they have tapped the credit, they admit they have a poofteenth soupcon of weakness, and they are punished and their foreign organs and funds are punished.

Alternatively, IIF could have dipped on friday because of worries over their exposure to Canada; they have the same problems we have, a looming recession, and the canadian buck hasn't died vs the US$ like ours has. So maybe there's a bit of EPS trimming going on by fund analysts and they're factoring in a 10-30% EPS dip by IIF in the next 12 months.

I'd have assumed the current SP reflected a bearish outlook already. But I've been proven wrong every time when I said "this is ridiculously cheap". All I will say is, this is pretty cheap on the usual metrics.