Whilst I am a huge MNF supporter I think some of your forecasts might be a tad optimistic. I can not see $1 and/or 500,000 subscribers in the next few years. Whilst $1 is in theory possible I am not banking on it, 30-50c is my target sometime over the next year. I do not see 500,000 subscribers in the next few years. Although if you extrapolate from the last 2 years of 80-100% growth the figures would look like this:
FY08 60,000 FY09 108,000 FY10 194,000
As we have seen from FY08 figures, 60,000 customers is at worst break even and at best a few million profit maybe?
Your observations that the directors are buying and have not sold a single share is correct and really tells the story here.
Where the company can go from here is really based on fundamentals which for MNF are particularly strong due to running a lean operation and being on top of their game.
I have spent an inordinate amount of time reseaching this little gem and have been rewarded by continuous positive announcements and forseeable strong growth. I also particulalry like that most of their important announcements go close to meeting targets.
Personally, after my research I am of the opinion that this little duck is a strong takeover target right now at around 30+c. Whether the majority shareholders would approve this or not is unknown. Whether it is worth more than 40-50c right now is also unknown but hard to see. Unless a possible takeover buyer has reasons that are not apparent to us mere shareholders.
What is known is that Mynetfone is a well run efficient profit making machine with 80-100% growth and importantly costs are under control.
The VOIP sector is on an explosive growth path with the early adopters of the last 3-4 years now mature bill paying customers happy to spread the word to friends and business associates. To their great credit MNF have a delivered a fault tolerent VOIP service to it's customers which has no doubt impressed people who have been talking to these MNF VOIP connected people and given them confidence to sign up too. Remeber, MNF growth has been due to viral & referral, there is virtually no advertising budget. It must be good, right?
In summary, as I have always said, MNF is a fantastic safe investment option given it's recent financials and certain continued growth. Let us not forget that the company is clearly in safe hands as management over the last 2 years has clearly demonstrated. Lean? Yes, just 33 odd staff, pretty impressive.
Yes, the top 20 hold the vast majority of the head stock but there would be plenty of willing sellers at 20c or just under so just place your orders and wait it out. A lot of these holders got in at 14-17c and would show a profit selling to buyers around 20c
Options are excercisable at 25c by 30 Apr 09 (8 mths). Also clearly very good value at 1-1.5c although if you have the money I believe that the heads are a safer bet. Remember, we are in a crap market right now and MNF whilst it has fantastic financials has proven that it is a quiet achiever and IMO is in no particular hurry so April might come up sooner than you think. Perhaps a mix of heads and options would be a smart strategy?
Whatever you think, one thing is for certain, this is now the last days/weeks of the "ground floor opportunity" period for MNF. Smart investors are filing into the elevator and it looks as though the UP button is about to be pressed.
MNF Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
