risk vs reward . is its musical chairs, page-3

Very good post pommytimbo.I have looked at the numbers on NLG and don't dispute the risk.My background is accounting and I can see risk as well as a opportunity.I don't have all my eggs in this basket.I do not believe the shortfall in cash flow is that high in FY09.Looking at the half year report and the various forecasts the forecast for the next financial year FY09 is significant going forward
Refer ann 2/4/08 EBITDA of $15 million (lets say this is incorrect by $4 million as was FY08)this would give an EBITDA of say $11 million.Refer also latest announcement 2/6/08 in which they say "the projected increase in gaming revenue from FY08 to shift to FY09" so it maybe higher than $11 million.The interest is the next question I see where you get the $17 million the half year has finance costs of $8.1 million so reasonable to assume $17 million.
Cash at bank 31/12/07 was $9.3 million as per reports.
So year end cash at bank for me would be $4 million
31/12 $9.3 million
Less half year loss after interest $5 million (also tax loss rebate)