The key variable that has changed is (as per ann) "the anticipated future orebody geometrydoes not consistently support the 1.4 Mtpa0F1 throughput on which the initial FS was based" hence the downgrades . This is pivotal for SBM. ie It is not possible to get the volume of gold out due to the changed geometry at depth and this is the new limitation. This is forever and getting worse as the mine deepens with the increased development work ratio. . Listen to Bob response to the question on the concall. I am out based on decreased ore volume, Higher Asic ,Higher risk, decreased Management credibility.( listen to the April 18 con call- no mention of trucks) . Plug Gwalia 2021 production ,new Asic(which is not going down) and Simberi LOM into the model and see what you get.
Ann: Gwalia Mass Extraction Feasibility Study, Guidance & webcast, page-172
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