SBM

1.43%

35.5¢ st barbara limited

Ann: Gwalia Mass Extraction Feasibility Study, Guidance & webcast, page-109

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22/03/19

17:32

Post #: 37856629
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Originally posted by eshmun: ↑

I think it is the second paragraph in this statement which is smashing the share price.

"The initial FY19 production guidance had anticipated the Paste Aggregate Fill (PAF) circuit to be operational in early Q2 December FY19. As previously advised, PAF is now due to be completed in Q4 June FY19, impacting anticipated gold production for the remainder of FY19. Production for FY19 is now anticipated to be between
235,000 and 240,000 ounces (previously 245,000 to 255,000 ounces) at an AISC 6 between A$980 to A$1,000 per ounce (previously A$930 to A$970 per ounce).

Production for FY20 will remain ventilation constrained until the additional ventilation from the Gwalia Extension Project is available, as forecast, in H2 FY20. Production in H2 FY20 will compete with development associated with GMX, with the outlook for FY20 now anticipated to be between 200,000 and 220,000 ounces.
The production profile past FY20 is subject to optimisation of the continued trucking option which is now underway, and for FY21 and FY22 the production rate is anticipated to be approximately 230,000 ounces per annum."

The announcement is more than about the Mass Extraction feasibility. It is disclosing some big impacts on the near term guidance and seems to be putting a cloud over production in the short term past FY2020, ie this mine could become very high cost very fast over the next 2 to 3 years. In that case investing 101 would suggest you need to look very very closely at what this mine can yield in net income over the next two FY years, up to the end of the FY2020. Add that yield to the cash SBM currently hold and subtract that from the company's market capitalisation and if you are left with a big postive number the company, that number will tell you how much of the company's valuation is floating on risk.

ie production for FY2021 and FY2022 are subject to "optimisation of the continued trucking option" whatever that really means. Esh

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You are going in a bit too deep in reading between the lines Esh...again.

Simple fact is that SBM was never blessed with the best mine(s) of the bunch, yet this year tremendous expectation was put on SBM by most analysts. See example from GS below 12/02/2019. When the bar is set high the tendency for the market to be disappointed cannot be denied... That's my take on the SBM market mayhem experienced today...

SBM Price at posting: $3.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 35.5¢		Change 0.005(1.43%)		Mkt cap ! $233.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
35.0¢	35.5¢	34.3¢	$591.3K	1.700M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
21	259123	35.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
35.5¢	821435	29

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	32500	3.430
9	72187	3.420
11	203897	3.410
9	117260	3.400
11	118353	3.390

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.440	192470	22
3.450	143302	12
3.460	61139	4
3.470	41621	7
3.480	81907	5

Last trade - 12.16pm 22/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

SBM (ASX) Chart

Ann: Gwalia Mass Extraction Feasibility Study, Guidance & webcast, page-109

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Ann: Gwalia Mass Extraction Feasibility Study, Guidance & webcast, page-109

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