So what is your price prediction now? - @LT_Investor
Hi @LT_Investor
Responding to your comment to me -
You raise some interesting points. I have not really been following SYR all that much last year and have hence been wary of making price predictions. I can give some pros and cons as I see it –
Pros (many correctly raised by you)
1/ Possibly undervalued from very long term angle
2/ Possible bounce due at some time – at least for short term
3/ Plenty of assets and cash to justify market cap
4/ Value investors like you taking note
5/ Long term insto supporters of SYR might decide to come back
Risks / Cons
1/ SYR has often had a close connection with general global macro stock market conditions. America’s S&P 500 is a good benchmark for global markets. But rise in global markets have not translated to rise in SYR this time around. If global markets take a tumble, SYR could again start to fall more https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=ES
2/ Battery metals like lithium, cobalt, etc. have all been down. Hard to say when they will pick up. SYR is unlikely to move up materially in isolation
SYR seems to have the smallest market cap at 470 million and besides another similar one (IFN), the 3rd lowest is EHE at 617 million
https://www.asx300list.com/
Asx300 list has several companies worth more than 500 million and I’m not sure why those are not in the ASX200 list vs SYR. I’m assuming this will be an important question the next time around.
If SYR is out of ASX200, then there could be compulsory selling by some funds purely into top 200 stocks
4/ Cash at end of this quarter is expected at 55-57 million. I’ve not analysed cash in detail but if market senses there could be capital raising, then there could be falls accordingly. I’ve seen tons of companies get hammered mainly due to capital raising fears. I think @cartex has pointed out earlier that SYR could eventually have cash issues
5/ My last key level (refer yesterday’s post) was $1.4 and I was reluctant to add another one below that. I thought price could at least go to $1 since it is a round figure but anything around this level is uncharted territory, as we are dealing with support/ resistance levels of 2012 when SYR first started its meteoric rise. Also below $1, long term shareholders are incredibly beaten down psychologically – so anything could happen. Price capitulations at bottoms can be very ugly. Are we there yet? I'm not sure, to be honest
6/ Price rarely moves from extreme overvaluation to fair valuation. Often in the market, it moves from extreme overvaluation (2016) to extreme undervaluation. Plenty of examples in various sectors – tech (bubble of 90’s to dotcom burst), gold (2010-11 vs subsequent bear market), commodities (2011 vs collapse in 2014-15, etc). While SYR might be undervalued, I wouldn’t call it extremely undervalued
Good luck with your decisions, and I might come up with price predictions in coming days if I see something very clearly.
As @Lunardragon replied to you, bots can only influence SYR to a certain extent. Millions of shares were traded today in a very narrow range of 97.5 to 1.01 This is all clearly not bots but sellers/shorters/ day traders etc.
We all don’t like bots but whether we like it or not, it is a part of the market for now. I’ve seen illiquid shares where bots sell some 10-20$ worth of shares and push the price some 5-10%. Now that would be more worthy of the term “manipulation” rather than a highly liquid stock like SYR. I’ve also clearly demonstrated that the market has given heaps of warnings on SYR; so I’m not sure if “manipulated” is the most appropriate word.
Sorry if you lost money on SYR. I do understand shareholder frustration with all this. You are right to be angry at bots. We all are.
1/ “I do find these posts by Ozpolarbear challenging to accept” - @skorpian
Response - But you’ve even found them challenging to accept all the way down from 6.4 where I came with initial warnings. So, you’ve refused to accept a very accurate analysis all along with almost all major inflection points covered, and a more than 90% accuracy all through.
As I told you before, it hasn’t affected me but affected you. You have lost 85% of your investment.
Anyone who paid attention to my warnings at 6.4 can now buy back 6 times their original number of shares and still have more money to spare
2/ “Always posted against the trading halt title and “ - @skorpian
Response - I’ve posted in 1 thread because almost all my posts have been an extension of the earlier comment. Graphite stocks don’t really have huge market caps which might make the SYR share price collapse possibly the greatest graphite stock market collapse in history. This did not happen overnight but was a step by step event from June 2016 . For eg. in my last few comments, I had warned of everything - possible maximum rise to $2, hard falls below $1.4, etc. Invariably, it becomes necessary to reply to my old comment for proper continuity. Also very useful where one can just read 1 thread and see a step by step move all the way down and how it transpired.
3/ “I cant but help to be an unfortunate Syrah investor from the past when I read the overly enthusiastic / pumping buy TON posts...along with King Louie. Those pump up the TON and rubbish the Syrah posts.
Have to say Syrah isnt doing well - but then again TON hasnt been the wonder share that Ozpolarbear used to promote” - @skorpian
“A leopard never changes its spots - that applies to Ozpolarbear
and unfortunately also to me as I stuck around in Syrah.” - @skorpian
Response – Speak for yourself. I’m not “stuck around” like you in any graphite stock. While I wish TON well, I was out long ago and sold at the top last year, and have sold at tops over the last couple of years, as mentioned to you some months back. One must be flexible and move with the market. You can continue to be stuck in the childish graphite commenting wars of 2015-16 and still be married to your SYR investment if you wish.
On my part, I’ll continue to try to provide balanced analysis, which would have benefitted any SYR investor to make accurate decisions over the years, and would have prevented them from losing 85% of their investment, as you have chosen to lose.
SYR Price at posting:
98.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
