Ann: Trading Halt, page-26

Yes will be interesting to see how much the miss is and how they frame it. The market may have already factored it in somewhat like I did in the spreadsheet a few months ago. They can still be on track but just a few months behind with the underground.

I did make a revision saying maybe they could sneak above 180koz but that required a lot of things to go right. A trading halt suggests that the miss is material. I think there might be a definition of what counts as material but maybe 5% under.

If they are still 170-175koz that would be a good result and would indicate that the March and June quarters are very healthy around 50-55 koz each and costs should be close to feasibility. Less than 170koz would be disappointing.

What frustrates me is that this guidance downgrade is more of their own making and being too ambitious with ramp up. So many companies do this and have to come out later and confess. I have been commenting about PRU guidance numbers for years and almost every time they had to come out and do a downgrade.

DCN's 210koz looked ridiculous as an upper end target right from the start when looking at the mine plan and the mill throughput etc. The broader issue is if there are problems with grade. We know the open pit had been underperforming and that probably hasn't changed. If the grade in the underground is struggling (nothing to indicate it was in previous numbers) then that is a major issue.