Technicals shaping up for a breakout, page-14

Yes I've noted that before but IMO that cycle is built on a bigger cycle where the yield curve inverts and historically this is almost always followed quickly by a US economic recession. Gold also historically emerges strongly after this cycle completes. The new Fed chair wasn't going to let that inversion happen on Trump's watch so he pulled the pin on the rate rises for this year which has sent the bull running. Remember there is nothing free about the markets any more. The economic levers came pretty close to becoming useless in the US when the Fed fund rate hit the bottom of the channel in 2016. How the economy and markets didn't crash then I don't know.

The swing on the US indexes during the live Trump inaugaration speech in 2016 was amazing to watch. He had been trumpeted as being bad for the US markets but when the reality sunk in and it turned out that the polite classes had been overruled by the great unwashed the banksters panicked and got straight behind him. The US markets and the economy basically talk their way out of the holes they had dug for themselves. The Trump rally has been the most amazing rally I have seen in all my years looking at the market. I'm pretty sure that it will all be given back when the next US recession arrives. It's only been temporarily suspended by the Fed's reversal and pandering to the market.

Take a look at the 54 year 10 year treasury yield chart overlaid with US recessions.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

The recessions don't seem to be function of the level of the 10 year treasury rates they are however reasonably well correlated to a flattening of the yield curve. See this post and the chart in it.Esh

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...592275/page-127?post_id=26450184#.XIcLBBo_WhA