SFX Value Analysis, page-10

KBkim is asking, on behalf of the many subbies etc that will be employed at TB, how long do they put off chasing other work or change plans? TB will be a big and long build, a lot of locals would have verbally committed to the EPC contractor and have expected things to start by March as SFX has been planning for a while. IMO SFX will have moved to a FID (decision to mine and all lights green) before Easter (Apr 21st) if the mine is going ahead at all.

Now is the best possible time to raise the equity and commit to the mine for a host of reasons, delaying 12 months will only screw shareholders further. I don't know of course,  but all common sense says that the equity funding required will be raised by the end of March and the go button pushed. The banks did a 12 month intensive due-diligence on TB (the cause of capex increases etc) and this will be available to all interested buy-in partners, so no delay on the DD front. Either a JV partner offers a buy-in deal which is accepted shortly, or offers a cornerstone share investment which is accepted shortly, and/or the company will go into a trading halt with news of a share placement equity raise shortly. The only way that TB is not started before Easter (80% chance) IMO is if Iluka makes a takeover offer which delays everything for 12 months minimum (15% chance), or the stock markets crash and SFX cannot raise the equity on market (5% chance). 

I will stick my neck out, touch wood, and say that the equity markets will not crash before Easter, too much stimulus going on.

Cheers