I'm a little bewildered by the negative mood in terms of buying or holding at current SP.
I agree we probably won't see a higher bid.
And yes, +17.5% don't look very sexy. But it's a gain within a 5 months timeframe, so expressed in a yearly return we're talking about +42%. That's an annual return i'm usually satisfied with.
I'm aware that takeover-deals can fail. I was a Flinders Mines shareholder when the takeover from those Russians failed in 2011.
Yes, it's Africa. And i know, DRC is difficult and special.
On the other side big NZC shareholders agreed. For Chengtun it's a great bargain. DRC will benefit from an asap start of mining. It's a deal in the interest of China. And were not the Chinese the first who accepted the new president ? Why should DRC responsibles annoy the big mighty brother ?
Expressed in figures I see a probability of maybe 5-10% this deal will fail. Maybe SP will crash in this case to old lows around 16c = - 50% loss
On the other side the chance is with an imo 90-95 % probability a 17,5% gain im 5 months = 42% expressed in a yearly return.
For me this looks like a good chance/risk ratio and i can understand buyers rushing in at 31c-32c. But of course i would be happy if mineralised is right with the suspicion that Houayou could be among the buyers.
To cut a long story short: Im thinking about buying some more around 31c-32c.
NZC Price at posting:
31.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held