I have a general rule of thumb on EV/AISC-adjusted production:
$800-$1 800/oz for junior producing companies with production under 150 000oz p.a.
$2 000-$4 000/oz for mid-tiers with production between 150 000-500 000oz p.a.
$4 000-$6 000/oz for upper mid-tiers where production exceeds 300 000oz p.a. and consistent free cash flow generation
$5 000-$7 000/oz for large producing companies where production is between 500 000oz-1Moz p.a.
$6 000-$8 000/oz for major producing companies with production exceeding 1Moz p.a.
The ranges may be adjusted up or down depending on quality of the company, stability of their performance, management quality and sovereign risk. It is quite a black box and requires subjectivity. The range is therefore broad because it gives greater margin of safety. If the stock is trading outside this broad range, I would call them very over/undervalued. Within the range, they can be slightly over/undervalued.
I don't seek precision. I seek safety. Better to miss a pitch than to swing too often.
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14 | 458433 | 1.240 |
12 | 312067 | 1.235 |
6 | 139692 | 1.230 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.250 | 371388 | 17 |
1.255 | 220916 | 10 |
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1.265 | 104166 | 6 |
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