Originally posted by vintage
For the objective observers here, there were no surprises in what has transpired this week. They were entirely expected and flagged as such by myself and several others. Of course, for pointing out the obvious, we had to put up with sustained attacks from those whose agendas are perhaps now a little more transparent!
With the SKI issue, the forum actually became quite the comedy club. For months - leading into the Dec 31 deadline and then the Feb 20 deadline - we had to put up with hyperbole about how SKI needed AUZ more than AUZ needed SKI and how taking up the options at 12 c was a 'no-brainer' because of the need and the discount and the board seat and the need to exert control etc etc. Then, when the options lapsed as they were always going to do, we get a complete about-face from heaps of the bulls with them now asserting that the options were never a good idea - that the discount would impact the bottom line, that SKI would have too much control and that Marcus had realised this and 'terminated' the options.
What a lot of bulldust! Obviously, if AUZ wanted to terminate them, there would have been an announcement between 3 Jan-20 Feb, saying as such. But there was not because AUZ wanted them taken up (obviously badly now that they are raising at 2.9c) but SKI was not interested.
For the bulls pushing that line - and there were many of them - everything that happens with AUZ is a matter of "tails we win, heads you lose". Talk about deluded!
At least some of the previous bulls see the two announcements for what they are and kudos to them. As for the rest, seems they will never learn. Or perhaps it is just part of their plan.
Hopefully we won't have as much nonsense plied about the SKI partnership in future. SKI management are hard-headed. Look what they squeezed out of Florence, Georgia over the planned US plant. It was ludicrous to ever think they would invest $80M in AUZ before financing was secured (i.e. the main condition precedent) let alone pay 3 times the market value of the stock. It was also ludicrous to believe that, after having 6 months to take up the options between July and December 2018 that they would miraculously change their mind in the few weeks after 3 Jan 2019. Flippa 3 times rejected my offer to explain why they would take them up, after lapsing 31 Dec, and not one other person filled the void.
SKI don't need AUZ. They need battery metals and there are many other options for them. They are clearly interested in the AUZ option but only if it makes sense in terms of economics and risk. Hence waiting for the optimised BFS and financing package.
The 2.9c cap raise is manna from heaven for Bergen who will now be able to convert their remaining $1.5M or so options to shares under 3c - so the combined SI and Bergen dilution will be significant - at around 230M additional shares.
At least its a bit clearer who the 'real' sheep in wolves clothing are.
Good post
@vintage. But I think MOST of the bulls are honest and up front and not wolves, well I am not I have held the same line (wrongly it seems at the moment) from the beggining and I have and continue to stick it out through thick and thin, Ive enjoyed the highs but experienced more lows now to date.
I am one of the AUZ bulls and am bleeding badly, I hate being red, who doesn't? Anyway I've stuck to my rules and only have a % of my net worth in direct equity's...thank Christ for PLS
. yes I should have sold out at .14-.15c.....hindsight, such a valuable tool
but alas I did notand here I am, battered, bruised disheveled....well you get the picture
but still here.
@mbot
@monark
@Bomber78
@Fab86
@otherbears (can't remember all of you)
Well played your all right I/we are wrong to this point at least.
So some serious questions from a bull to a bear/s
1. Firstly I cant work out your hatred for BB, yes he has made mistakes the London presentation and the smart reply to the ASX I was not wrapped about and I recall I said as much. Wont comment on Bergen as I confess I had never heard of them prior to AUZ signing on....and I suspect some of the bears who hang from the coat tails of the experienced contrarians had not either
From before our rise to .15c what would have you guys done differently ? Don't shy away from the question, i'd like to know. Who here on the forum wouldn't have tried to woo SK
2. If your green (ground floor buyer)I can understand you may wish to sell out on Wednesday, but gee it will be stampede for the doors I suspect for a couple of days. For those in the red what do you guys (in your opinion) think one should do ? I'm certainly not going to get 3.7c on Wednesday morning......
3. Given SK have chosen NOT to exercise the options, they needed funds. Should they have kept Bergen...seeing as they had already arranged it, how would you guys have played it ? they obviously need funds to comply with audits/solvency so what should they have done ?
4. Riddle me this why ONLY $5m, $75m shy of the SK take up. for this credit raise ? doesn't seem enough in my view.
5. Who should be in BB's role ?
6. Are we privy to all the nuances, knowledge and proceedings the board and senior management at AUZ are ?.....
7. Who thinks the ore at Sconi is NEVER coming out of the ground
Its a tough gig I am sure, and who here on HC feels they could have done a better job?
It is a long tough road, but are their not some positives ?
Prior to the SK term sheet we had a measured resource (bears argue it's not sufficient) that's economical, since then they have added to that reasonably significantly.
They have proven that that they can produce the required battery grade metals to meet "a customers" specifications.
Until we are informed otherwise the off take remains
SK now lose (at this stage) the 19.99% and board seat as well as what ever the discount on the ore amounted to over the life of the off take, none of us on HC are complicit to what that agreement entailed. Was the discount to much ? could it have been a sticking point with financiers.
NAIF decision possibly September or was it November...I forget, there is a chance that will come through ?
The ev revolution is going to happen in my view, we are not quite their because the infrastructure is yet to be built
So my thoughts are no doubt we are in for a painful couple of weeks, but if your red and do not need any "lunch money" next week
my thoughts are your better of holding, what do you guys think ?
I think by the end of 2019 there is a strong chance I and other will be green again IF boxes are ticked. NAIF and financing.
It intrigues me why it is only 5m AUZ are putting their hand out for, SK walked with their $80m still in their wallet, they had to get some funds, that is a simple fact....
No doubt for those in the red who are not bailing next week (I am not) it will be a long slow burn now, agree with that, but I still think LT that Sconi will be mined, the metrics have improved since the highs at .15c, the Macro headwinds though are gail force currently. But I dont see the point in selling out if your red as in 12-24 months the picture MAY be a positive one and if that turns out to be the case then it is pretty well in line with the life cycle of a junior miner diagram.
I for one have learnt a lot during my time holding/accumulating AUZ.
(20min delay)
