"No doubt"....strong factual language there Geo.... can I lend your crystal ball ?
is this a fact ? or your opinion ? is this unsubstantiated information ?
You are so intent on saving our souls;
Tell us all what we should do, you have such an embedded interest in proceedings so set out the instructions for what we need to do ?
Sell at a loss now (for those in the red) ?
Or should we hold ?
What is the reality..or your perceived version of it ?
From my point of view....in my opinion of course, the long term metrics have improved, the recent drilling program indicates this. Also is there a possibility that a future drilling program could in fact increase the resource ?
SK not taking up the options was, in the short term going to hurt the sp...no doubt. You also need to acknowledge that pretty well EVERY company in the battery metal space has had it's sp smashed;
CLQ (poor punters who bought in at $1.00+)
AJM
PLS
COB
for example.
AUZ is certainly not on its own.
So since the highs's of .15c we;
1. still have a pilot plant producing better than required grades of Ni and Co that as it stands is still required for the off take with SK
2. Increased resource
3. Orphan period for 70x giga factorys slated to be built (funds committed not commissioned yet)
4. Possible NAIF cash injection
No doubt SK taking up the options would have been a massive sugar hit to the share price, adn I would have been happy had they have excercised, I'd be in the green I suppose.
It didn't happen so AUZ need to move on, as do the "punters". Now we have situation where it might seem uncertain, we still have macro head winds working against us, but more manufacturers and Governments globally are moving to end the reign of the ICE. It is a done deal, but the nuances are many and it will take a while to close out. So long term (in my opinion) just maybe SK not taking up the options and getting that discount....and who knows how significant the discount was as it was commercial in confidence might pay off, it's "probable" that Marcus Hughes might have advised the board that the discount was a dud deal. Its probable that financiers told AUZ it was a dud deal.
The .4c .12c argument is old...I can see how people initially think that it was impossible that SK would pay .12c when the sp was .4c, but that is a simplistic view of it in my opinion. The .12c/80m deal was relative to a number of machinations other than simply sp, if I recall correctly NAIF was not on the agenda at all when the .12c/80m/19.99%/board seat/discount strategy was developed.
A lot of that had to do with "turning a sod" at Sconi and long lead items, getting the ball rolling so to speak.
We don't know, we are not privy to the board room discussions. What we do know is that there are still a couple of years before the 70x giga factorys come on line and Battery metals squeeze begins. More news every month that strengthens the case for the ore at Sconi to come out of the ground.
Acknowledge that now we are again in uncertain waters...if we where ever out of them any way. But the slate is clearer now in some respects, it is a more open road for AUZ with better fundamentals than when the option deal came about.
Their are risks ahead but I think that long term Sconi will go to production as it's a proven resource that can produce the products that the impending electrical revolution requires.
In the mean time there will be some sp pain until we get that certain news, NAIF would contribute to that.
Its funny that SK have kept (at this stage) the option to commit to the offtake, why not walk away completely....................yeah I know it costs SK nothing to string AUZ along. maybe in the long term (if it happens that it wasn't Marcus/banks etc. that said the ore discount was untenable) 10 years down the track the Koreans might be ruing not excercising the options and injecting $80m....who knows.
One thing that is "beyond doubt" is that all will be revealed in the fullness of time. I wont be selling I think long term the cards will fall in the punters favour.
(20min delay)
