Originally posted by moremoneyplease
I think i know what happened to this company and why it failed................they spend all year writing up a detailed presentation - never seen so much jumbled crap in my life.
aveo mngmnt if yu need a new investor relations director give me a call.
more money, I understand your comment re complexity...but AOG is a complex business model hence the need for an Appendix to explain all the moving parts. A quick summary:
AOG has two divisions - retirement and property development. The latter is being phased out with just a bunch of residential land blocks & Currumbin land to be sold.
The US retirement assets are also to be sold leaving just the retirement assets & development pipeline as hardcore business assets going forward. These are predominately held by AOG though there are minority shareholders who hold a percentage of Aveo Healthcare.
the “retirement division” now consists of an ‘aged care’ sub-division via the Aveo Freedom ILU’s and SA’s which are being promoted as a genuine alternative to the traditional aged care beds.
then there is Aveo Care which offers aged care services within the villages and surrounding areas. This is set up to operate at break even...but isn’t presently given that there are many units yet to be occupied.
on top of this AOG makes its money via the DMF model from development stock and existing stock.
now traditional development recognises its profit at the point of sale settlement, but AOG recognises its. Profit upon completion of the unit and the DMF model is a complex DCF model over 50 years!
al the numbers are there in the appendix, it just takes time to assimilate them all.
i think the key is to study the ‘underlying profit’ because this is the profit of the business and it dictates the annual distribution. If you wanted to study key metrics it would be the margin on the development stock and the existing stock. Plus the return on the net assets, being gross assets less the residential loans.
when you look at AOG v its peers, NZ based Ryman (which now has a big toehold on the Vic market) is the market leader in metrics..but AOG is improving...until this year where the slowing market will see a blow out in costs cause of the ‘costs of holding stock’ this is AOGs Achilles heel. They have proved they can build 400 to 500 ILU’s a year..but they can’t sell them.
