Where to now for long term investors of Telstra, page-5976

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cophot

184 Posts.

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15/02/19

16:30

Post #: 37452479
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Originally posted by kittyboomboom: ↑

I think Penn is finally talking sense and the business is in great shape considering.
Dividend cuts aren't nice but continuing to add both mobile and fixed line customers, reducing costs and coming close to the end of extra Capex spend.
3200 redundancies doesn't come cheap and with near 0% margins on NBN customers of course things look bad for now, make no mistake ALL re-sellers are having the same issue, the difference is TLS will exist long enough to benefit from when wholesale prices are reduced, most re-sellers wont.
FY2020 will be a watershed year IMO for the below reasons:
- $1b reduction in Capex
- benefit of redundancies will flow through
- property sales will boost cash AND reduce costs
- IOT continuing to grow fast (long way off being major contributor FY2020 but no doubt will be in future)
- Large increase in NBN rental
- 5G network will have almost 0 competition in the first full year
- lower core network costs
- NBN write-down and reduction in wholesale prices highly likely in H1 FY2020

Not a single one of the above items is even in doubt!
NB: I didn't mention NAS as I wont rely on an assumption of growth, I didn't assume any positives out of Health (ie; total write-off), I didn't factor in serious revenue from IOT in the short term and didn't even assume success in 5G.
IMO filling the "NBN black hole" will only take the reduction in Capex, reduction in costs (including redundancies) and actually having earnings from NBN customers, just think for a moment when a few million fixed line customers currently making TLS almost nothing turns into $10 profit per month.
A write-down in NBN and drop in wholesale prices alone will likely add $300-500m to TLS after tax profit straight off the bat, I believe that's a conservative estimate.
Could it (write-down) not happen? Of course, but who would be left re-selling the NBN other than full service operators?

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Any person in business that can see the company is in a bad shape and does nothing about is heading for disaster. Making the big decisions and sticking by them makes a leader the one you need; they are doing the best for the company.

Last edited by cophot: 15/02/19

TLS Price at posting: $3.18 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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