Steel is very cyclical business. profits will go up & down mainly based of global prices (supply & demand). There has not been a huge amount of production increases over the last few years however demand has increased with large economies starting to recover and invest in infrastructure after many lean years. If the world economy remains under control BSL is now structured to make a profit throughout the cycle. To me the $12 is priced for the bottom of the steel cycle and yet BSL is going to make billion plus profits for 3 years running and there doesn't seem to be anything looming that will change that in the short term. Maybe the people who got burnt after the GFC have long memories however as I said previously BSL is a far better structured company now. I don't think they will give a huge dividend as they have no franking credits and it should be far better long term to buyack shares than having some people pay half of their dividends back to the taxman. $250m buyback should be equivalent to about a 40c dividend.
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