A40 0.00% 8.2¢ alliance mineral assets limited

Significantly undervalued, CY20e EV/EBITDA of 1.2x, page-47

  1. 773 Posts.
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    While I appreciate the references to SBM, and the constant mention of $5.00 per share (would be amazing!)

    Lets compare Market Cap to Market Cap.
    SBM: $2,631M at $5.00 per share 
    A40: $221M at $0.165 per share
    numbers are approximate.

    This puts SBM's Market Cap at 11.9 times that of A40.

    If A40 were to match the Market Capital of SBM it would be a price of about $1.96 (11.9 * 0.165).

    $1.96 would be great! But it isn't $5.

    How does this compare to other peers Market Cap?

    1StockCurrent Market Cap (AUD$mill), time of postingMultiples of A40 at AUD1mil
    2MIN$2,91313.2
    3PLS$1,1685.3
    4GXY$8023.6
    5ORE$8423.8
    6KDR$5242.4
    7AJM$2631.2
    8AVZ$920.4
    9BGS$420.2
    104CE$40.0

    Looking at PLS, KDR, GXY etc it seems that todays Lithium market I suggest we should be at about the $800M to $1B Market Cap, once the startup concerns have been cleared. This is lower than the $2.6B of SBM. $1B Market Cap gives A40 a price of about AUD$0.74

    However, the whole Lithium sector is down at the moment, possibly to about half of where it was in January 2018.
    This means that maybe a future Market Cap of $2B could be possible, maybe even $4B could happen when the Lithium market starts to pick up speed.

    So, today, I don't believe $5 is possible, but when the Fines circuit is up and running, and we've got DMS2 running, and a 20 year mine life, with average sales above USD$750 per tonne, and the Lithium market starting to grow to the Demand story that we keep hearing, then maybe $4 could be possible for A40. $5 would still be a stretch without some serious growth and expansion from the company (this could happen).

    I'll still be holding from now for at least a couple of years, hopefully for a few years of dividends, hopefully I get to see A40 around the $2 to $4 price.

    All IMO, DYOR, etc.
 
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