Whilst I'd love no CR, It looks like you have assumed the $13m cash on Dec 31st has been untouched over Jan by assuming $38m ($13m cash + $25m shipment) as of start of Feb. Given the quarterly estimates (-$51m), plus our expected costs per tonne are close to US$650-$700 this quarter, it is likely the $13m has been used up in Jan production alone.
So this reduces your own calculation to $1m cash and $10m recievables, meaning we have trigger our debt covenant.
As I say, I don't see CR as a bad thing if it gets us past the once off hump.
A40 Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held