Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-2

The NWH's share price has risen steadily recently without the buy-side of “Quotes and Depth” indicating sufficient interest to support the rise. Now we learn that Dimensional Holdings has been accumulating on a daily basis for the last three months. I like to think that their investment gurus keep an eagle eye on the sage advice proffered by NWH aficionados on this forum.

Of course, the opposite effect would occur if an insto were to sell. The reality is that these movements do not change the intrinsic value of NWH as a stock. For some instos, expected currency movements may be the main investment motivator, especially on the sell side. I fondly recall when two USA-based instos dumped CCP years ago, and I was able to buy into CCP cheaply (average $8+). CCP is now my largest source of dividends, and my highest value shareholding. It would have been higher had I not been forced to raise some money in a hurry to pay myself the regulated pension within the 2017 tax year. I hoped to buy back soon afterwards when I got a tax refund, but sadly, the SP jumped 33.3% before I could do so.

What makes CCP and NWH (vastly different companies) similar in a way? The answer is that both have a CEO of exceptional calibre, and both had near-death experiences in past years. CCP does not dilute its shareholders holdings via generous executive bonuses, and its management freely shares its future expectations with shareholders via published forecasts, so if I had to rank the two CEOs on the basis of competence and ethics, I would vote for CCP's Thomas Beregi. CCP publishes forecast expectations of key metrics, including EPS, a year in advance, and updates the forecast quarterly, and always exceeds its EPS forecasts. What other ASX-listed company has the honesty and confidence to do that? CCP is close to being fully valued now, IMO, so I am not suggesting one should hurl money at it.

I believe that honest and well-run companies should not dilute the value of shares via share issues, so it is worth comparing NWH to MND and CCP (I hold all three) over the last decade.

CCP ..... 44.3 — 44.5 — 45.2 — 45.6 — 45.9 — 46.1 — 46.3 — 47.0 — 47.4 — 47.7
MND .... 85.9 — 86.0 — 87.6 — 88.7 — 90.9 — 92.7 — 93.2 — 93.7 — 93.9 — 94.1
NWH .. 251.2 - 251.2 - 278.9 - 278.9 -- 278.9 - 278.9 - 278.9 - 278.9 - 321.8 - 370.6