Long comment coming up. Feel free to ignore if you don’t like long comments
1/ Key levels
Around 1.4, Around 1.6, 2; 2.24; 2.39/2.44/2.5; 2.64; around 2.8; 3; 3.2 (3.15 and 3.25); 3.45 to 3.53; 3.65; 4; 4.5; 4.72
2/ Support at 1.6
I mentioned in my earlier comments on the way down from $2 that there could be potential support around 1.6, and that this better hold. Although we did indeed break, we subsequently see that 1.4 was a false break and that SYR has found support around 1.6 several times. So, I think my original expectation was right. Around
1.6 is also long term horizontal support (around 2012, 2013) as I had mentioned several months back
3/ Key levels of 1.4 and 1.6
Since we broke to around 1.4, this becomes another key level now on way down (if at all). As I mentioned much earlier, I saw
no major support between 2 and 1.6. So no surprises that we have come back to
at least test this level of 1.6.
There does not seem to be much support below 1.4.
4/ Bearish descending channel
Major risk for this year as I have mentioned since June is
bearish descending channel. I mentioned the risk of what could happen several months back if we eventually break the channel line. I just drew lines to see (IMO SYR investors would be wise to do the same on their own) and it
appears that channel line (bottom trendline of channel) which originally gave support has now become resistance. This is one reason for SYR bumping its head on way up on multiple occasions after 1.4 bottom
5/ Long term trendline
Bottom trendline over many years seems to be going slightly lower and lower (eg. 2017 support was supposed to be around 2.39 but then found support at lower level of 2.23). This year, it did not find support at trendline but if you draw lines, you would see that
long term trendline actually seems to be resistance this year instead of support.
6/ Resistance at $2
After bottoming at 1.4, SYR’s bumping its head around $2 was almost inevitable- several reasons like
profit taking from traders for good rise from 1.4; $2 is one of the main key levels; long term descending trendline, etc.
7/Technicals
Aussiebulls has a short on SYR
https://www.aussiebulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=SYR.AX
Also refer
@gordon2 comment below where he shows a bearish symmetrical continuation triangle
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-supplementary-prospectus.4569083/page-2?post_id=36790179
8/ Shorters
Shorts still pretty high at 16.58% on Dec 3
As I’ve always mentioned, SYR shorters have
never EVER been squeezed IMO, but have always been supremely in control
9/ Macro analysis
I’ve always mentioned that SYR is very susceptible to what is happening at overall macro level.
This year too, we see that SYR fall is
in line with fall with commodities and battery metals.
Also recent
trade war chaos which affected markets also hit SYR hard.
10/ Conclusions
1.6 potential key level that I mentioned many months back seems to be right. Since we had a false break to 1.4, that too could now offer support if we are to go down.
SYR needs to hope that overall macro situation improves
$2 is major resistance on way up
Several resistances on way up (if SYR goes up) including channel line of descending bearish channel, long term descending trendline, $2 major key level, etc.
Falls below $1.4 (if at all) could get very ugly
Just a disclaimer that I don’t follow SYR in much detail nowadays – just some initial thoughts based on quick look at SYR share price and could be wrong. Just sharing some observations.
Good luck and cheers
(20min delay)
