US Indices on Tuesday's close: SPX: (+0.97%), NDX: (+0.98%), Dow: (+1.09%) and RUT: (+1.51%)
ES profile balanced out after a trip to the overnight lows. They are trying to balance things at 2570, which as you know is a point of previous acceptance and the 50% retrace from the move from 3 to 24 Dec. The current value area is now in line with the value areas from 17,18 and 19 December. Intraday we were in a kind of dip buying mode. Test pilots are exploring heights - thin to win - on declining volume but shorts are still feeling comfortable. In the absence of negative headlines and real volume, the machines could continue to make them look like bait fish jumping the surface.
Above is a chart of cumulative NYSE A-D lines superimposed on 30 minute SPX candles. Take it the context of other breadth data -- it is good for intraday trading.
Breaking news: the president is not expected to declare a national emergency over the wall thing.
Internals on the Close
NYSE A-D Lines: +1652. NYSE breadth: +2.6:1 and NASD breadth: +2.69:1. NYSE cumulative TICK: trended higher from 12:45 ET. TRIN: 1.36. NYMO: still stuck at the top end of its range. NYSE MOC: A heavy buy of +1B on the closing auction ended with +51M to buy. SPX volume: 2.542B. NYSE total volume: in line with yesterday's value.
Debt
ZN futures (-0.33%) fell for the third session as US Treasuries were sold and the curve flattened. That deceleration in buying interest intensified after a $38B note auction got tepid demand. The 2-year (+7 bps to 2.59%) to 10-year (+3 bps to 2.72%) spread came in to 13 bps while the 2-year to 30-year (+2 bps to 2.99%) spread compressed to 40 bps.
Volatility
VIX fell to 20.47 or (-4.35%) as it finally weakened in the second half of the session. VX term structure is still tail up from front month VXF19 at 20.75 (-3.76%) into the June contract.
Incoming
Tomorrow before the bell we have the MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 07:00 ET. EIA Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 ET and FOMC Minutes for December are released at 14:00 ET. I hope you all have a great trading day.
(20min delay)
