The Brains Trust, page-14906

Wall Street has continued to rally. Watching carefully the money running into rising and falling stocks.  Overnight it was really good but I do think the S&P is going to start meeting heavy overhead resistance from here.  NYA and NASDAQ Comp have already achieved their minimum upside moves.

But what was different today was the US dollar. It has made a clear break to the downside from the sideways action of the past couple of months.  This has taken some of the pressure off gold.  I was expecting a correction back to around $1265 simply because everything got really overbought on the last run up.  I wouldn’t anticipate seeing the start of another major move to the topside in gold while it is this overbought – rallies perhaps but that is all.  As well stocks aren’t performing as well as the metal on the NYSE which tends to be slightly negative. Still – as I have said before - there are some fancy upside targets on gold, just wasn’t anticipating having to take them into consideration just yet.

Other than gold, there weren’t really any major moves in commodities except sugar. It has been locked in a horrid bear market for some time so doesn’t surprise to see it rally. Soybeans a bit higher on talk of action on trade. Iron ore a bit better – coal slightly weaker.

The XJO did a great job yesterday. I mentioned yesterday I had a wobbly looking head and shoulders bottom pattern on our index so hoping I might get it clear of all the little tops we have had in this area over the past couple of months.  But I have one major concern here – we left a lot of gaps.  Now whether the market has to come back and fill the gaps now or later, I don’t know but they will be filled. Just something to keep in mind now that this little outbreak of exuberance is upon us.

The overnight move in the US dollar has me concerned today. We might have to watch this carefully as if it continues there will be some big re-thinks needed.