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JoseyWales33

359 Posts.

163

05/01/19

10:20

Post #: 37031349
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Originally posted by JoseyWales33 ↑

Hi @morganman
Sorry I missed your post.
It's more than how well DEG does, but there are a lot of larger issues that may come into play that may be a driving force not only for DEG but many other quality juniors. You know how beaten down the exploration and mining sector is. BUT if you watched Rick Rule in @gbgirl 's post you'll see how these are the indicators that maybe it might be a good time to buy.

Here are a few other examples of how I have so much conviction that this company will benefit from economic turmoil. This was posted today on CEO.ca

Originally posted on CEO.ca NVO by @AUinvestor (thanks)
Just one of my many posts at a gold group that I host gives a bigger picture view of the bottom in gold last August that I called to the very day... This move was expected to be in stealth mode until the Fed was perceived trapped in a corner. Even as recent as the last FOMC in December, Powell was still waxing hawkish as the stock market began to tank in earnest. (I post this here, because a rising gold price will float all boats (miners)). It pressures the shorts to close positions and emboldens investors to step up to the plate to buy (of course having missed the extreme lows). In Novo's case, it buys time for their story to unfold and for the stock price to gain momentum. Unfortunately, (ok disclaimer time: easily offended "snowflake" people please cover your eyes and plug your ears and immediately head to your "safe place" NOW!... because people are generally F*CKING STUPID when it comes to connecting simple dots (as in Novo's case) so please don't ass-u-me that they'll "get anything" until Novo has soared later in the year... i.e., once again they'll be price chasers at much higher levels.

A few "big picture" charts of the scenario I've been discussing falling into place. (This fb format only allows me to post one at a time). So I'll comment on each chart as I post them.

As you can see, the yield curve inverted in 1980, 1989, in 2000 and in 2006. Recessions occurred in 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008.
Somehow, the main stream HeeHaw "gurus" (for anyone that has been watching knows) have once again failed to pay attention to this historical, reliable indicator. Yes... just simply following the history of the yield curve allows even a simpleton to beat the Wall Street pros and all the president's men that advise him.

So why have inverted yield curves predicted recessions (curious minds want to know)? We know that when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, it signals the onset of a "risk-off" financial environment, when the bond markets figures out that short-term rates will fall soon. Because as we know, in recessions, the Fed cuts rates in an attempt to stimulate investment and consumption.

In fact, for the past year or so, I have been discussing why the Fed has been racing to hike rates to the 4% level (during recessions, it's been determined that the Fed needs to lower rates 3.5 to 4% in order to come out of a recession. As well, the Fed learned (watching Japan and Europe) that negative rates do not work). My discussion for over a year has been why the Fed hiking rates and contracting the Balance Sheet at $600 Bln per year (equivalent to a 1% rate hike per $600 Bln) would in fact cause the very recession they were preparing for)... i.e., that the Fed is trapped.

Here's something else that is important... when yield curves invert at the same time that risky corporate debt rises to all time highs, it's even worse. So far only 5-year - 3-year rates have inverted, but the trend continues narrowing for the other maturities headed for an inversion in the months directly ahead.

So then we ask ourselves, is it any surprise? For anyone following the discussion we've had since Trump's inauguration (not only against all odds predicting his becoming president, predicting his trade war and discussing the repercussions when most others blew it off, predicting various geo-political events, etc), would not be surprised.

Yes, economic conditions have been deteriorating (despite not hearing too much about it in the mainstream news). A trade war, over-borrowing by corporations, contracting a $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet (i.e., burning money QT - opposite of helicopter drop QE) has all been transpiring at a time when the Fed deems it wise to hike short-term rates as long-term rates fall.

This of course was predicted and is all falling into place just as predicted... a trapped Fed will be forced to pause on both rate hikes and balance sheet reduction.. and then to begin to cut rates as the recession emerges.

Meanwhile the treasury debt has doubled since the Great Recession of 2008, corporate debt has soared, bad investments and poor judgement in borrowing by companies or consumers has soared because of Obama's ZIRP, so much so that even small rate hikes is straw breaking the camel's back... enough to put an end to the party... consistent with theories of the leverage cycle and of financial instability.

Yes, no surprise except for the market horde of fools led by the cast of characters on CNBC's HeeHaw that failed to understand the Fed was/is trapped in Hotel California (can check out anytime but never leave)... a place where residents will once again chant Keynesian slogans, "ZIRP forever", "Bring back Bernanke!", which by the way (ZIRP) will (eventually) be understood as the culprit in the next recession.

Gold will soar... it's the reason as noted then in August that it bottomed as gold is always the first to figure it out.

http://cdn.ceo.ca/1e2spsu-fredgraph-5.jpg

Thank you in advance @AUinvestor for allowing me to lift this.

Here's a link to analyst Jeffrey Gundlach and his assessment of pretty much the same as above. The videos are in four parts but are short. Very telling and concurs with @auinvestors post.

https://marketsanity.com/jeffrety-gundlach-this-is-definitely-a-bear-market/

Hope we have much success in 2019 and if the shtf, well, this is why we invest in juniors…

Good fortune to all this new year.
Cheers

Expand

And then there's this…

Sprott money weekly wrap up with a shout out to @AUinvestor and others that he reads on the chat boards. Uncle Eric never ceases to amaze me. I sleep well knowing others much smarter/experienced have the same mindset. Good to see it reinforced.

https://m.soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-1419

Very encouraged by the sisters close today on the OTC.
Cheers

DEG Price at posting: 13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $1.40		Change 0.055(4.10%)		Mkt cap ! $3.115B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.38	$1.41	$1.36	$9.178M	6.594M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	247	$1.40

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.40	199327	9

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	98838	0.097
3	164295	0.096
4	79115	0.095
2	55000	0.093
1	100000	0.092

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.100	100000	1
0.105	420062	7
0.110	220284	3
0.115	140300	4
0.120	158460	8

Last trade - 16.10pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

DEG (ASX) Chart