Hi Esh, good post and from the outset, I am in way trying to tarnish CMMs name by listing the other developers that have had massive issues. Although funnily enough, I cannot think of a single developer that has had a smooth transition to producer (in Australia).
I concede that stripping costs will be less than say GCY or BLK, however, it still costs money to build up a store of low grade ore/stockpile or plus what is required for the ROM pad, which earns nothing initially, plus the commissioning will be a big job, they are building a big plant and it will cost a lot of money to get it to commercial production. You know better than me, its take DCN 9 months to reach commercial production, 9 months! That was never factored into the DFS.
I am simply saying CMM will be no different. Pre-production has not be factored in to the $132m required to build the plant. So I am interested to hear from you how much extra they will need between now, and say, early 2020 when the plant will likely be turned on/undertaking commissioning?
Admin, exploration, pre-stripping and commissioning.
$20-40m? Is my estimate. And odds are that is going to end up being conservative.
btw - I totally agree about the deposit overall, very few in Australia, simple as that. RRL's tilt at the company showed that. LT, the company should do well if they are indeed able to prove up extra ounces.
Anyway, I did find the debt facility hedging amount very interesting. 250,000 ounces is a large amount, but... my guess is they are going to lock it in any day now, as AUD $1800 or close to it, is an amazing figure. Again, CMM have got a little lucky, as just months ago, the POG in AUD was much lower.
Well done to them though.
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