Originally posted by ozbucheron
Thanks for that.
I've looked through all company announcements for the last five years and can find only two estimates of rail capacity:
- 2-3 Mtpa in the October 2015 quarterly (30/10/15)
- 1 Mtpa in the 2014 rail study (26/11/14)
- a comment in the January 2015 quarterly that the consultants who conducted the rail study were doing more work - "a more detailed study is underway" (30/01/15).
The company has announced that a 10 Mtpa operation is being considered but it hasn't stated that the existing rail has a capacity of 10Mtpa in any ASX release I have read, including the revised presentation of 11/12/18.
Mota Engil is currently assessing the capacity as I understand it.
Have you seen a public report that confirms a capacity of 10 Mtpa please?
Hi,
In the terms you are putting it no. But as the company has said that is their plan and they are currently working on PFS (Q1 target stated) I have no doubt that they have reason to believe it to be the case and that is what we will see at some point in the not too distant future. They have actually suggested there could be further upside.
To put the whole issue in context; There were a couple of posts in here over the past months that showed the direction the region is taking. Existing rail lines are being upgraded and a new link through to Chad being built. (Links below) It is my understanding that the upgrades being planned and paid for by other parties mostly carry freight in to the interior. They run back to the ports predominantly empty. It makes sense that a freight company (Bollore) would want to backload. I'd also suggest that the costs will also be less than some expect because the track is predominantly downhill to the port. As long as the axle loads are acceptable, the actual cost to pull the carriages is going to be reduced by the 'gravity' advantage. Also worth noting that the new Kribi link would not increase the overall distance to port as much as expected. Check the diagram below to see visually the differences involved.
This quote from ASX release 16-12-2016 also gives some context on who will pay for rail...IMO it will not be Canyon, they will just be valuable clients.
"The Company is in advanced discussions with the Government ofCameroon in relation to the broad opportunity of developing a DSObauxite operation in the Adamawa Province of Cameroon, including thepossibility of securing additional permits in close proximity to theCompany’s existing Birsok joint venture project. The Company has alsoengaged senior French legal counsel with significant African miningexperience to assist Canyon in its discussions.These discussions are ongoing and the Company will keep the marketinformed of any material developments.As a bauxite mining and export project contains a significantinfrastructure component to its successful development, Canyon hasbeen working with the Government of Cameroon (as the owners of theinfrastructure) and the Bolloré,Group (as operator of the rail line), topresent its initial development proposals for potential infrastructuresolutions for a bauxite mining project in the Adamawa Province ofCameroon."
This planning has been going on for 2 years plus.
The links about in-country rail upgrades supported by the The European Investment Bank (EIB) and the World Bank.
http://www.crtv.cm/2018/12/chad-and-cameroon-railway-line-construction-imminent/
https://www.businessincameroon.com/...aign=business-in-cameroon-07-12-2018-mag-n-69
and just for good measure google earth view of the plateaux. (very rough outline of their location) I did note the 'unexplored plateaux' were looking like they had close to pure Gibbsite on them. This is sure to grow.
From last weeks ASX release: "In addition to the drilling, the Company has a team of local Cameroonian geologists conductinginitial reconnaissance exploration on previously untested bauxite plateau adjacent to theBeatrice, Agnes and Raymonde plateau.
These untested bauxite plateaux are within the highgrade bauxite plateaux corridor zone. This initial reconnaissance exploration has identified manynew zones of bauxite with a high level of visible gibbsite. These new areas will be a high priorityfor future drilling and exploration." (my bold)
Figure 2: A rock chip sample showing high levels of gibbsite-hosted Al2O3 from a previously untested area.
So in short, it's obvious that much of the planning has been going on for 2 to 3 years and it is my guess the PFS will enlighten us all. Share holders could get a very pleasant surprise on a number of fronts, rail, drilling and resource upgrades
(20min delay)
