Well yeah this is kind of what I am getting at. If mines like AVL don't get funded on the assumption that scenario 1 or 2 comes back into play and we don't get new supply and demand remains (albeit cyclical) with VFRB's coming into play back in low double digits do we see the sub $10/lb price in the next decade? It's prudent to consider it and even bank on it but is it realistic to expect it if supply doesn't expand.
Does it make sense for steel makers to takeover/develop primary V sources so they can supply themselves at a C1 cost of $6/lb regardless of what the market does above that and mothball if spot/contract goes below that?
I don't think this is the end of the V story but it's not the right market to be putting out marginal numbers that is true.
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