Ann: PAR Reports Successful Phase 2 Clinical Trial, page-46

Ok so the results are possibly fine though it is really impossible to compare to others in the the OA space as the company has only released 50% pain reduction level results and p scores for 50 days and 36 days. 

A more advanced competitor, Flexion has passed Phase 3. Their trial demonstrated efficacy advantages over saline-solution placebo for exploratory end points on multiple scales at weeks 4, 8, and 12 (all p < 0.0001!).

If we compare what PAR announced today at the >50% of 46% on iPPS, Flexion achieved 52.3% on drug >50% compared with 37.1% of placebo. Statistically significant benefit was achieved at week 12; p < 0.05 at weeks 1 to 16 and week 18). Paradigm achieved a lower response but also a lower placebo but without seeing averages or 60-90% level it's hard to judge which is more efficacious.

Also, I would want to see PAR reported/statistically significant at the 99% level.

In terms of clinical development pathway stages, by comparison, Flexion has passed Phase 3 and is at the NDA stage - sure it is trading at US$500 mill but that's expected given the cost ~US$100m, time (~2 yrs) and risk (42% chance of failure) to pass a phase 3; hence I think we are probably at fair value here based on what has been released. Then as I said earlier once more results are released or a deal is secured (a sign the results are derisked based on someone with an information advantage over us endorsing them by signing a cheque) then we may justify a materially higher market cap. I'll keep the faith for now.

Cheers, 8's