Esh.,
I have enormous respect for you and your opinions have been proven correct in many instances over many years. My initial reaction to the CR, much like yours, was why so much and so low a price, given the quality of the resource, the elevated interest to fund the mine, and the forward cost estimates.
I’ve looked over the Company’s announcements, presentations, and news stories over many years, looking for inconsistencies, lies, promises unfulfilled, any BS I could find and I feel they’ve been unusually strong and consistent in all regards right up to this latest CR.
In the end, we aren’t the ones at the coal face and we aren’t privy to the pressures and circumstances that Management must face on a daily basis. We also can’t have a mature discussion about value without recognising the substantial risks inherent in this project.
Just some points off the top of my head:
1) Management’s actions in proving up the resource, including the latest drill hole at depth are not consistent with someone happy to flog off the asset cheaply;
2) Financiers have always run the show, nothing new there, and there aren’t many Eshmuns in this world ready and willing to go against the grain and get the job done their own way - no matter how long it takes;
3) Time here is risk. We are dealing in an ultra-poor Country (GDP est. $13B in 2017). Our mine will probably be worth a billion+ in its own right at some stage. The Government is unable to finance, on its own, the actions necessary to squash terrorist activity. They are reliant on the French and international support. It’s not a stretch that they would seek more funding, at some stage, from the growing band of internationals mining their lands. The Capital has been attacked 3 times already, targeting mainly foreigners. You can imagine all the suits shite-ing their pants as they arrived in Ouagadougou and onto the mine site to do their due diligence for finance in recent months. Most recently, 4 policeman escorting mine personnel were ambushed near the eastern border but were able to fight back killing 5 terrorists. The time before that, soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb. We are inland so less risk, but personnel still need to travel between the Capital and the mine. The last thing we need is for one or more of our own to be killed. Under these circumstances no one can blame Management for not stubbornly extracting maximum value for shareholders. The end game is to get out alive and somewhat wealthy. If that means some riches are left behind for others in the process, then so be it;
4)Finally, but also important, financial markets are looking ‘toppy’ as you say. There is already heightened inflation in the US, masked at the moment by a higher USD. The Feds actions here speak louder than words. The higher dollar in turn (plus tariffs) are putting a handbreak on US growth going forward. Unemployment is at generational lows, debt at historic highs. If the shite hits the fan we will all be glad this money is in our pockets now.
Anyway, just my opinions.
Wish you all the best.
WAF Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
